https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/29/boris-johnson-vote-leave-eu-exitSpoiler
The Vote Leave gang now running Britain do not want to govern. They want to win
Matthew d’Ancona
Life moves pretty fast, as the philosopher Ferris Bueller observed. A week ago, the question was: how come 160,000 Tory members were about to choose the next prime minister? Today, the question is: how come we are suddenly being governed by a rightwing populist single-issue campaign group?
In the past few days it has become quite clear that, at heart, Boris Johnson’s new government is essentially a reunion party for the Vote Leave gang that triumphed in the 2016 EU referendum.
Aside from the prime minister himself, there is his fellow former co-leader of the campaign, Michael Gove, the new chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, entrusted with no-deal preparations, who will chair a daily meeting of officials and advisers to orchestrate a speedy departure from the EU.
No 10’s chief of staff in all but name is now the formidably clever Dominic Cummings, former campaign director of Vote Leave. The campaign’s former chief executive, Matthew Elliott, is tipped to join the Treasury as a senior adviser.
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Dominic Raab, the spectacularly overpromoted foreign secretary, and Priti Patel, now the helm at the Home Office, were both members of the Vote Leave campaign committee. So too were Andrea Leadsom (business secretary) and Theresa Villiers (environment).
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To call this a “coup” is wrong. Much as it may seem otherwise, no rules have been broken (unless you count the breaches of the law committed by Vote Leave in 2016 or Cummings being found in contempt of parliament after failing to appear before a select committee inquiry). But it is certainly a hostile takeover. The wretched balancing act of Theresa May’s premiership is no more. This is politics by purge.
All of which is quite explicit. The more interesting question is: to what end? Cummings made that pretty clear when he addressed the new cohort of special advisers in No 10 on Friday. Though they worked for individual ministers, he said, their first loyalty was to Johnson and his Downing Street apparat. Whatever department they worked in, their primary objective was to achieve Brexit – “by any means necessary”.
No accident, either, that Cummings used a phrase made famous by Malcolm X – a framed picture of whom was prominent in Gove’s office at the education department when he worked there with Cummings. Their favourite conceit was that all those striving to reform the nation’s schools were opposed by what they called “the Blob”: vested interests, public sector unions, unsympathetic civil servants.
Dominic Cummings: master of the dark arts handed keys to No 10
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To beat the Blob, the policy radical had to think and act like the black revolutionaries of the 60s, ready and willing to do absolutely anything in the name of success. You can bet that this bellicose psychological approach has been dusted off and imported to No 10: the new Blob, one imagines, is even bigger, comprising “remoaners”, the media elite, the entire city of Brussels and (quite possibly) 48% of the UK voting population.
I do not think it is strictly accurate to say that the Vote Leave cohort craves a no-deal outcome to this horror show. In 2016, the campaign maintained that a deal with the EU was desirable and achievable.
At the same time, Continuity Vote Leave remains entirely target-oriented. It seeks to win, not to govern. And, in this instance, winning means getting the UK out of the EU by 31 October – “no ifs, no buts”.
Yes, you will hear plenty over the summer about crime, education and the NHS, accompanied by many populist pledges. But all this will be tactical rather than fundamental – a mostly cosmetic propaganda plan to keep the voters on side while the main objective is pursued.
Why the all-consuming urgency over Brexit? One of the Vote Leave gang’s most aggressively held beliefs is that delay is the rust that eats through success. The longer we dither over leaving the EU, the less likely it becomes.
It follows – in their group logic – that further procrastination could wreck all that they fought for in 2016. If leaving by 31 October means doing so without a deal – so be it.
Hence Sajid Javid’s announcement in the Sunday Telegraph of “significant extra funding” to prepare the UK for such an outcome, including one of the country’s “biggest ever public information campaigns” – all part of the dismal transformation of Brexit from a supposedly easy act of emancipation to a matter of civil defence. Gove, too, declared in the Sunday Times that “we must operate on the assumption” that we are heading for a no-deal exit.
What does the prime minister really think is going to happen? It is an error of analysis to assume there is a single answer to that question. So great is his faith in the force of his charisma and personal will that he doubtless persuades himself in the long watches of the night that he will make Brussels see sense and agree, with tearful gratitude, to a deal of his choosing.
But you can bet that – five minutes later – he will realise that this is impossible. There may indeed be some scope on the EU side for amendment of the backstop mechanism to manage the Irish border question; but it is the backstop itself, not its form, that a significant hardcore of MPs object to. Likewise, Johnson’s “Gatt 24” wheeze to call a standstill on tariffs for up to 10 years falls at the first hurdle. Using this obscure procedure in international trade law would require all 27 of our fellow EU member states to sign off on the arrangement. Forget that.
During the leadership contest Johnson insisted that the chances of a no-deal Brexit were a “million-to-one against”. We are expected to believe, then, that all this showy preparation for no deal is a Cool Hand Luke bluff by a strategic master? Well, sorry – I don’t buy it. This is exactly what it looks like: a government bracing for a very bumpy exit.
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There is no statesmanship in any of this – only campaigning zeal and emotional commitment. As Philip Hammond, Rory Stewart and other MPs do their best to thwart no deal, the Johnson government will simply claim that the defeatists, Europhiles and enemies of destiny are up to their usual tricks: thwarting the will of “the people”.
Remember that Vote Leave was a campaign, not a party. Its business was direct democracy, not the representative variety. No wonder that some senior ministers are so excited to discover that – technically, at least – the UK could still leave the EU on 31 October, even if the country were then in the thick of an election campaign forced by a vote of no confidence.
This is where a country ends up when it is governed by a caucus with a single, overriding objective. Johnson’s strategy, for all its initial brio and swagger, leads nowhere other than a zone of anger, division and dangerous disillusionment. To which his allies would doubtless say: so what? You heard the man – by any means necessary.
• Matthew d’Ancona is a Guardian columnist
Spoiler
I won’t support no-deal Brexit, says defiant Ruth Davidson
Ruth Davidson has issued a defiant challenge to Boris Johnson, pledging she will refuse to back a no-deal Brexit before his first visit to Scotland as prime minister.
The leader of the Scottish Conservatives is expected to meet Johnson in Edinburgh on Monday, after the prime minister begins his trip north with a visit on the west coast.
Writing in her regular column for the Scottish Mail on Sunday, Davidson said: “When I was debating against the pro-Brexit side in 2016, I don’t remember anybody saying we should crash out of the EU with no arrangements in place to help maintain the vital trade that flows uninterrupted between Britain and the European Union.
“I don’t think the government should pursue a no-deal Brexit and, if it comes to it, I won’t support it.”
Saying she had confirmed her position to Johnson when the pair spoke by telephone last week following his election as UK Conservative leader, Davidson added: “As leader of the party in Scotland, my position exists independently of government. I don’t have to sign a no-deal pledge to continue to serve.”
Davidson’s public defiance – just as the Brexit planning minister Michael Gove confirmed that the government was operating on the assumption that the UK would leave the EU without a deal on 31 October – will further test her already strained relationship with Johnson.
She was reported to be “livid” after the prime minister sacked her ally, the Scottish secretary, David Mundell, and appointed Alister Jack in his place. Mundell later confirmed that Johnson had replaced him because he “wasn’t as on board with a no-deal Brexit as [Johnson] would want me to be”.
Johnson went on to appoint an English MP, Robin Walker, as a junior minister at the Scotland Office, in an apparent snub to the 12 other Scottish Conservative MPs. Johnson later added Colin Clark, one of his most vocal supporters north of the border who unseated Alex Salmond in the 2017 general election, to the team.
This repositioning appeared to contradict assurances from Johnson allies that he is willing to take guidance from Scottish colleagues on strengthening the union.
Warning that “politics is about more than personalities”, Davidson promised that she “will not be backward in challenging Mr Johnson’s government where I think they are getting it wrong”.
She wrote: “I will work hard, be professional and build constructively on the work that has already gone on to ensure the UK government delivers for Scotland, in Scotland.”
Early in the leadership campaign, Scottish Conservative critics said a Johnson premiership would spell catastrophe for the party, boosting support for independence and bolstering Scottish nationalist arguments that Westminster represents only a wealthy, southern elite.
Davidson conceded that she was united with the new prime minister “in our determination to stop Nicola Sturgeon trying to use the differences that do exist across the UK as a pretext for breaking us apart”.
She also underlined her opposition to the creation of a separate Scottish Conservative party, which some supporters have suggested is the only way to consolidate the gains that she has achieved in Scotland against the ramifications of Johnson’s Brexit strategy.
Spoiler
Johnson refuses to meet EU leaders unless they scrap backstop
Boris Johnson is refusing to sit down for talks with EU leaders until they agree to ditch the Irish backstop from the Brexit withdrawal agreement, despite invitations to meetings from the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, and the French president, Emmanuel Macron.
His official spokeswoman said the prime minister had made clear that he wanted to strike a deal, but that there was no point in holding face-to-face talks unless the EU agreed to reopen the agreement.
But on a visit to the Trident nuclear base at Faslane in Scotland on Monday, Johnson painted a more optimistic picture of the prospects for talks, telling reporters there was “ample scope” to achieve a new deal.
He said: “We are not aiming for a no-deal Brexit at all. What we want is to get a deal and I’ve had some interesting conversations with our European partners. I’ve talked to [the European commission president] Jean-Claude [Juncker] and Angela Merkel and we’re reaching out today to [the Irish prime minister] Leo Varadkar. The feeling is, yes there’s no change in their position, but it’s very, very positive.”
But he added: “They all know where we are: we can’t accept the backstop, it was thrown out three times, the withdrawal agreement as it stands is dead and everybody gets that. But there is ample scope to do a new deal and a better deal.”
While Johnson has spoken to Merkel and Macron, there are no plans to accept their invitations to visit without a change in their position on the backstop. Irish officials are understood to view the delay in contacting Varadkar as indicative of an unwillingness to enter serious talks. Varadkar is adamant that the backstop must stay to prevent a return to a hard border on the island of Ireland and preserve the integrity of the single market.
A Downing Street spokeswoman said: “The PM has been clear that he wants to meet EU leaders and negotiate, but not to sit down and be told that the EU cannot possibly reopen the withdrawal agreement. And that is the message that he has been giving to leaders when he has spoken to them on the telephone so far.
“The EU has said up to now it is not willing to renegotiate [the backstop] … The prime minister would be happy to sit down with leaders when that position changes. But he is making it clear to everybody he speaks to that that needs to happen.”
Asked about his plans to kickstart negotiations with the EU over the summer, after the foreign secretary, Dominic Raab, appeared to suggest on Monday morning that he would not reopen talks until the EU agreed to ditch the backstop, Johnson said: “I believe in reaching out. I’ve already been talking to colleagues around the table in Brussels, I have absolutely no inhibitions about that. We are going to engage and obviously ask for very profound changes to the current basis for leaving the EU.”
Although the formal position of the EU that there could be no further negotiations on the withdrawal agreement remained unchanged, he said, “they understand that the UK and the EU are two great political entities and it is possible for us to come up with a new deal that will be to the benefit of both sides”.
Despite the positivity of Johnson’s outlook in Faslane, where he met naval personnel working inside the nuclear submarine HMS Victorious, his underlying position on talks makes clear that No 10 is proceeding towards a no-deal Brexit unless EU leaders change their minds about not reopening the withdrawal agreement. It is counter to expectations among some of Johnson’s supporters that he would embark on a whistle-stop diplomatic tour of European capitals to propose an alternative to the backstop, instead leaving the ball in the court of EU leaders to make a move.
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The No 10 spokeswoman said: “I think he has been clear that the backstop has to be abolished. He remains confident that the EU will stop claiming that the withdrawal agreement cannot be changed. But until that happens we must assume that there will be a no-deal Brexit on 31 October.”
Responding to Johnson’s refusal to meet EU leaders without a promise to scrap the backstop, one EU source said: “This choice puts us on the path towards no deal, which is the worst possible way to manage the consequences of Brexit.”
Others detected nothing new in Johnson’s bravado. “As Mandy Rice-Davies once said in a court case in the 1960s, ‘he would say that, wouldn’t he’,” an EU diplomat said. “The demand for a new withdrawal agreement is simply not realistic, it is not in this world.”
Some wondered whether the British government should be taken seriously. “I am not sure what he is playing at,” one diplomat said. “It takes you two minutes to realise the backstop is important to the EU, you don’t need to be a big Brexit expert. Either you are not talking, or this is for another audience, and I hope it is the latter.”
EU leaders should seek to meet the new incumbent at No 10, the diplomat suggested, “to filter out what he means and what he is saying to a domestic audience”.
A European commission spokesperson referred to a phone call between Juncker and Johnson last week, when the outgoing commission president outlined that the bloc would not change the Brexit agreement finalised with Theresa May, but remained open to changing the political declaration text.
The spokesperson said: “We have agreed a withdrawal agreement with the United Kingdom government. The deal we have achieved is the best deal possible. We are willing to add language to the political declaration, but we will not reopen the withdrawal agreement.”
Earlier, Raab refused to say whether Johnson was planning to see EU leaders any time soon, saying there would be meetings “in due course”.
Johnson is ramping up planning for no deal with a series of new cabinet committees to prepare for leaving on 31 October.
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The government is also planning an advertising campaign involving spending up to £100m on warning the public and business to get ready. Johnson’s spokeswoman could not say what the exact messages would be or whether the public would be advised to stockpile. It will not involve leafleting every household, but broadcast and billboard advertisements are likely.
David Frost, Johnson’s new chief Brexit negotiator, has warned his European counterparts not to underestimate the prime minister. According to a leaked email seen by the Financial Times, Frost sent an email telling them that “you should be in no doubt about this government’s commitment to the 31 October date”.
It added: “I would also add that many people are inclined to underestimate Boris Johnson and I would urge you not to do so.”
However, unlike the prime minister, Frost has been seeking to meet MEPs, requesting meetings this week with the European parliament’s pointman on Brexit, Guy Verhofstadt. The Belgian MEP and senior parliament officials were not available to see Frost because they were not in Brussels.
On his visit to Scotland, Johnson heaped praise on the Scottish Conservative leader, Ruth Davidson, who on Sunday issued a defiant challenge to the prime minister, pledging that she will refuse to back a no-deal Brexit.
Claiming that he was “with Ruth in wanting to avoid a no-deal Brexit”, he said: “Ruth has been a fantastic leader of the Scottish Conservatives. I am lost in admiration for what she has achieved. I’m a massive fan of the way she has taken the argument to those who would destroy our union.”
Davidson has made no secret of her reservations about the new prime minister, and Johnson infuriated her last week by sacking her ally David Mundell as Scottish secretary against her advice.
The first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, said she intended to set out for Johnson the “considerable damage” that any Brexit, and especially a no-deal Brexit, would do to Scotland’s economy.
Speaking in advance of her first face-to-face meeting with Johnson since he became prime minister, she said: “Boris Johnson has formed a hardline Tory government with one aim: to take Scotland and the UK out of the EU without a deal.”
Boris Johnson entert die nächste Stufe im Brexit-Streit. Der Neu-Premier boykottiert die Staats- und Regierungschefs der EU: Er will niemanden von ihnen treffen, bis sie die umstrittene «Backstop»-Klausel aus dem Ausstiegsabkommen streichen. ...
https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/ausland/eu/id_85503600/brexit-unternehmerverband-ruft-mitglieder-zu-vorbereitung-auf-notstand-auf.htmlMit drastischen Worten richtet sich der britische Unternehmensverband an die britische Wirtschaft: "Ihre Küche wird überflutet werden, aber vielleicht können wir das Schlafzimmer im ersten Stock retten." ...
Thema: Brrrrrr-exit (Gelesen 154558 mal)
